For every situation from which we have to select a shot, there exists a best option barring strategic adjustment from our opponent. This is our highest equity shot before adjustment, our HESBA. That might...
Many players assume that doing the same thing over and over again is inherently bad, because it’s “predictable.” This is a misconception. Our goal isn’t to be unpredictable, our goal is to win, and...
Many events in tennis appear lucky. The ball dribbles over the net for a winner. Someone hits a second serve ace on the line. A forehand is shanked high and deep, and ends up...
Tennis is random. Each shot is best understood not as a particular result (winner, error, rally ball, etc.), but as a probability distribution of possible results, from which a particular result is chosen at...
Tennis doesn’t feel random, because, as we swing, we feel like we’re in full control of the racket, and thus the result of the shot. This control is an illusion. Don’t believe me? Let’s assume...