“I Just Started Missing.”
Ever wonder why sports books try really, really hard to get you to place parlay wagers? It’s because the parlay bet, a bet type where you bet on multiple events, and ALL of them...
Why Sprint to Net?
Sprinting to net changes the geometry of the court, in a way that allows you to be aggressive without increasing your miss rate. There are certain shots your opponent can hit that will force...
Certainty is a Feeling (and Cheat Code)
Certainty as an epistemic state is a lie. A human being can never truly be certain about something, and most people have far higher confidence in their predictions than is warranted. That said, certainty...
Highest Equity Shot Before Adjustment (HESBA)
For every situation from which we have to select a shot, there exists a best option barring strategic adjustment from our opponent. This is our highest equity shot before adjustment, our HESBA. That might...
A Shot’s Probability Distribution
Tennis is random. Each shot is best understood not as a particular result (winner, error, rally ball, etc.), but as a probability distribution of possible results, from which a particular result is chosen at...
Tennis Is Random
Tennis doesn’t feel random, because, as we swing, we feel like we’re in full control of the racket, and thus the result of the shot. This control is an illusion. Don’t believe me? Let’s assume...