A Commonly Overused Mixed Strategy
One of the most common situations in which players adopt a suboptimal mixed strategy is doubles return of serve. In many matches, no, you don’t have to hit your serve returns down the line....
Highest Equity Shot Before Adjustment (HESBA)
For every situation from which we have to select a shot, there exists a best option barring strategic adjustment from our opponent. This is our highest equity shot before adjustment, our HESBA. That might...
The Optimal Frequency is Often 100%
Many players assume that doing the same thing over and over again is inherently bad, because it’s “predictable.” This is a misconception. Our goal isn’t to be unpredictable, our goal is to win, and...
Basic Strategy – Where’s My Edge?
Tennis strategy is best understood at the level of individual shot selection decisions; for each unique situation we are forced to play, we have a different strategy, appropriate for that particular situation. Skill levels...
Win Anyway
When we’re on court, we don’t complain. We win. To the questions below, there is only one productive answer – win anyway. The manner in which we go about this may vary from question...
5 Ways Elite Players Make Their Own Luck
Many events in tennis appear lucky. The ball dribbles over the net for a winner. Someone hits a second serve ace on the line. A forehand is shanked high and deep, and ends up...
The Pusher’s Strategy is Better Than Yours
The pusher's strategy isn't very good - hit the ball back into the court and never play offense. Clearly, the pusher is wasting at least some opportunities to get ahead in rallies at...
A Shot’s Probability Distribution
Tennis is random. Each shot is best understood not as a particular result (winner, error, rally ball, etc.), but as a probability distribution of possible results, from which a particular result is chosen at...
Tennis Is Random
Tennis doesn’t feel random, because, as we swing, we feel like we’re in full control of the racket, and thus the result of the shot. This control is an illusion. Don’t believe me? Let’s assume...
Three More Examples of the Winning Attitude
We’ve already discussed the common trap of incorrectly believing that winning is your goal, when, in reality, it’s something else. Typically, these winning imposters look similar to winning at first glance (ex: hitting good...